You probably know that I like to add the outstanding commercial paper from CP release and banking credit from H8. To some extend it is mixing apples and oranges together but the result looks very reasonable to monitor the trend. It matches what you would expect.
What you see here is that the sum made a top at $11,322 bln at the end of March. By the end of April it stands at $11,189 bln. The credit contraction is only starting now.
I think the troubles of the “subprime” meltdown made all the attributes of a typical recession visible by December-January, but the mainstreet economy fell behind the market turbulences and only now is showing the first tentative signs of the slowdown.
Update: instead of sitting here all night and preparing an extended overview of various bonds issued recently with all interest rates out there I’m cheating, I’m taking a shortcut. All you need to know is here, Fannie Mae raised $7 bln at 8.25%, Freddie Mac will likely do the same.
Wait a minute, the average prime mortgage rate as compiled by Freddie Mac is 6.05%. So those guys are losing 2.2% on every prime mortgage they write. Those are the two most important corporations in our economy and they are in the tailspin that eventually will be stopped by the bail-out. Bernanke cuts rates to 2%, where are those rates? This is what the credit crunch is, the inability of the Central bank to control interest rates on almost anything except treasuries. This is what “pushing on the string” is – Federal reserve can’t push money into economy