May 2008

Mobile Site

That Guy Drinks Beer asked me to make an RSS feed that could be easily read from the mobile phone, i.e. includes the complete text of every post.

If you want to view my spring widget plese see it here:

New RSS feed

I want to offer you better content and have more control over RSS feed. For example, I want to add some content to my RSS feed that is not published at the site, like thie message.

So I’ve created the FeedBurner feed for the site:

Initially I was looking for some feed creator that will let me to make RSS feed not from the original website RSS feed but directly from HTML, which would let me to publish the complete content in RSS but still have the split-post feature used. I failed to find any solution to do that. So I would suggest you to re-subscribe to this new feed above instead of the original RSS.

The real life demands compromises. The traffic at the new site is less than here so far (here I had ~500 cl/day, there ~200), but the “quality” of the clicks is much netter. A lot of people are coming directly from the “” page and I’m sure they are very interested in what I’m writing. Here a lot of people are coming after googling for “stupid people”, “florida vacations” or “bear”. I don’t think they read anything.

About ads – they are quite annoying but please take into account that WSE is a for-profit enterprise. It’s different from me because I have a full-time job and I’m blogging to communicate with people and share ideas, I’m not interested to earn extra $20 from ads. For now I’m not getting anything because the readership is too low and there is nothing to share yet. But if new people will come I’ll get few bucks.

Please read new post:

The last bubble in the investment desert

New post is here.

Please support the new blog (and Web 2.0) by subscribing to the RSS feed using the button below:

It will take you to the list of all major RSS aggregators. Click the logo of your favorite aggregator and are subscribed!

Thanks a lot!

The new post at Wall street Examiner is here, please enjoy!

Note: there are RSS feeds to subscribe :

for posts and

for comments. If you use Firefox it supports the dynamic feeds (RSS) directly, just click the link. Otherwise there are plenty of RSS feed readers, list is here:

There is a bunch of online feed aggregators, which is probably easier to use. I prefer The list of aggregators I suggest is:

If you have a “Digg” account please support the new site by digging it with this link:


Hi All! I want to share with you that I was cordially invited to start my own blog at Wall Street Examiner. You probably know this site very well as Russ Winter is contributing there as a blogger and Lee Adler is posting his excellent daily reviews for subscribers.

This is the location of my new blog, it’s titled “The yellow brick road” and I’m opening with a new installment of “Where is my recession?” serial.

Please share your feedback, do you like it, is it working well. I’ll continue to announce every post here for easy transition and I think I will keep this site for all posts that I will consider not applicable for WSE

You probably know that I like to add the outstanding commercial paper from CP release and banking credit from H8. To some extend it is mixing apples and oranges together but the result looks very reasonable to monitor the trend. It matches what you would expect.

short term credit

What you see here is that the sum made a top at $11,322 bln at the end of March. By the end of April it stands at $11,189 bln. The credit contraction is only starting now.

I think the troubles of the “subprime” meltdown made all the attributes of a typical recession visible by December-January, but the mainstreet economy fell behind the market turbulences and only now is showing the first tentative signs of the slowdown.

Update: instead of sitting here all night and preparing an extended overview of various bonds issued recently with all interest rates out there I’m cheating, I’m taking a shortcut. All you need to know is here, Fannie Mae raised $7 bln at 8.25%, Freddie Mac will likely do the same.

Wait a minute, the average prime mortgage rate as compiled by Freddie Mac is 6.05%. So those guys are losing 2.2% on every prime mortgage they write. Those are the two most important corporations in our economy and they are in the tailspin that eventually will be stopped by the bail-out. Bernanke cuts rates to 2%, where are those rates? This is what the credit crunch is, the inability of the Central bank to control interest rates on almost anything except treasuries. This is what “pushing on the string” is – Federal reserve can’t push money into economy

At April 30 I’ve posted “Kiss this rally goodbye“. Well, I was wrong by 2 days and 18 points in the S&P. I’ve said that the peak will be 1404 at April 30 but now it looks like the real peak was fixed at 1422 at May 2 (both intradays). After yesterday 3.5% carnage in financial stocks they are tumbling by another 2% today. Financial sector is a leader in rallies and falls, so we won’t see that May 2nd 1422 level for months and, who knows, maybe years or even many years.

What happened? In this post 2 days ago (and the follow up discussion) I’ve suggested that Feds will have to make sacrifices in order to save the bond market. That had to do something nasty to scare the money out of stock market into bonds. My proposal was that the Feds will either suggest that they will allow Countrywide to fall or they will hint of possible rate hike.

Yes, they made a hint that the rate hike is possible, that worked very well – I was right. Second, the SEC declared that investment banks will now have to disclose the liquidity levels. That worked even better. The market is tanking exactly as Bernanke wants it to.

Yes, we know that Bernanke put exists for the bulls. Now we know that Bernanke call for the bears exists as well. Those who think that he will allow the stock market to rise at the expense of the treasury bonds are terribly mistaken. He will make all necessary sacrifices

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