If you ask me to pick one single stock that will indicate the state of the current consumer-driven economic cycle I will pick Harley Davidson. Why?

  • The typical consumer of Harley is a male, 35 to 60 years old, $40k to $200k income – pretty much slicing the whole spectrum
  • The Harley motorcycle is pretty much useless, nobody use it for commute or shopping
  • The management and the brand are very solid, you can exclude any non-economic reasons for the stock performance

Today Harley Davidson declared its earnings. The stock was down over 4% at one point and now is about 45% below last year top. But when it resumes the uptrend you should start searching for the market bottom.