Here’s the google trends chart of the word subprime in web searches and news:
As you can see the full awareness of the subprime problem came in February ’07, but you can see the first blip in late Fall of ’06. As I recall I’ve started monitoring the ABX.HE credit default swaps as early as in January of ’07, after Russ Winter’s blog posted them. And I recall how I gave my friend a call during the weekend right before the February big crash telling him to get out of stocks. Unfortunately he didn’t, the same way as my other friend who didn’t listen to my opinion that buying a new home in LA in the middle of ’05 was not a good idea.
This is the chart of “housing bubble“:
Amazing, the full awareness of the public about the housing bubble came in mid-’05, even before the RE prices topped. I’m sure the decline of builders and lenders stocks came at no surprise to those who read news. It was quite boring to wait till it finally happened.
Can anyone suggest more of the nice google trends searches?
Update: Thanks everyone for suggestions! The most amazing result came from “wal-mart” search:
I think it clearly confirmed the weakness of the latest shopping season! The “recession” search was clearly pointing to the cracks in the consumer confidence:
“Foreclosure” search was slowly trending up past year and “gold” was flat. Unfortunately nothing came for my favorite “it’s different this time” 🙂