As a Christmas present I want to give you an advice and the illustration that this advice is good.
The advice: never trust any single opinion (first of all my opinion) or the opinion of a small connected group of individuals. Good example of source of diverse opinions could be a “Bloomberg on the economy with Tom Keene” on Bloomberg radio. Keene manages to invite a broad range of unrelated experts and if you are looking for a single source of diverse opinion there it is (podcasts are here).
The proof of the opposite is very simple. This is what Jim Cramer said at February 29, 2000:
You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now. OK. Here goes. Write them down — no handouts here!: 724 Solutions, Ariba, Digital Island, Exodus, InfoSpace.com, Inktomi, Mercury Interactive, Sonera, VeriSign, and Veritas Software
You can’t make a worse portfolio even if you try. Looks like your loss should be in the 99% area.
A guy with incredible brain damage power 🙂