Libor (which is publicly available here with 1 day delay) is on the run. Something horrible just happened with 1-month rate, which went from 4.82% to 5.22% in one day. That could be an all-time record of panic. The 3-month rate climbed to 5.12% for a spread of 62bps above Fed target rate.

The stock market is very stupid and it will not pay attention to Libor until the chain reaction leads to something more understandable to stock traders. Like some kind of blowup or default, which will probably happen in 4-8 week timeframe. I’m bullish for now.

For now the conclusion is very simple: I put the chance of Fed rate cut in December at 90%. They just have to cut facing the next wave of financial meltdown