You probably know from the quite popular book “Ahead of the Curve” that employment numbers are in general a lagging indicator. Please note that the book’s charts are actually based on revised numbers, so the initial report is double useless – first because it is lagging, second because it will be revised in the unknown direction.
On top of that my favorite blog “Sudden debt” gave one more reason that in this economic cycle the employment numbers are more lagging than before. Please read here to get more details.
So, when the November nonfarm payroll numbers will be released next Friday, December the 7th you should:
- Understand that the numbers released at December 7 will give you the right numbers only for October, November numbers will be revised later
- Understand that October employment numbers released next week will give you the state of the economy back in September and say almost nothing about October
- Understand that September is so far away already that it hardly matters
- Ignore those numbers, toss them out the window
I understand that all news channels will try to tell you how important the NFP numbers are. They are wrong
The Theroxylandr in Flame 
December 1, 2007 at 7:15 am
Theroxy,
Ignore those numbers, toss them out the window…
I can’t, because they have the potential to move the markets — as someone with open positions (and I’m always looking for more ways to trade profitably), I have to pay attention to these crap numbers and the way they are spun by the tabloid financial press, which includes Cramer, Kudlow, et al.
December 1, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Sir
I see the Benz coming out of the production line form the company in Germany; I see the street in Germany the unemployed now getting the grants or the relief in all sorts of manner from the German government. The unemployment today 2nd December 2007 in Germany is at a very low level. Albeit I state this with the proviso. It is at a low level. This is only an example and rightly so.
The TV tells me the Palestine children as young as ten are being employed in the garages and other odd jobs. Some buys and girls want to get employment in army as soon as possible, no education in the war torn zones. That goes for the poverty stricken countries too in the African continent. Some Nigerian youths are caught selling bottles filled with jelly like liquid as medicines to earn one bread. The Police crack their head, bundle the medicines and the youths ten all in one salon car. Unemployed. It is a sin. It spoils the name of the politicians of the country. Hush this as fast as you can so we can have the better picture for the tourist and the Power packed governments to give more donation on our efforts to crack down the terrorist??? Is that it?? The beigest culprits stay in the Air Conditioned offices with US Dollars 1,000,000 car and the house as big as the publicly, I mean after all I sleep in one bed at one time. There I need one bed for everyday. That accounts for 365 beds in one year. Throw in one for the guest. A house, not a bed.
Sir.
Are the unemployed not humans? Have there never been a history of unemployed. Are these not the ones who create the economy? Let me elaborate. If all were employed I would having a Vista not the DOD machine with DMP at the speed of one page a day !!!
No. I am all for the employed but there are always few braches that break when we harvest the crop. There are always few small fishes caught accidentally when we go for the huge fishes. Whales aside, these small fishes are the food of millions who are staying on a dollar a day.
Does that sound sarcasm?
We are approaching 2008. Are we warming the globe? Who are the ones we look for to help us in this exercise? Poor of course. You do not need head to recognize the small truth that the seven wonder, The Pyramids, were built by the men under the rule of whips. This is sadly true today. Only difference is the Carrot and Stick. The new evolutions methods. This is management talk. And in the, management poor slave do not speak. They talk orders till they pas this position to the son and son and son.. It goes on we have this; we will live with this as I see poor will stay poor and rich will wave the stick. No offence. This is from the TV.
I thank you
Firozali A Mulla MBVA PhD
P.O.Box 6044
Dar-Es-Salaam
Tanzania
#East Africa
December 2, 2007 at 12:57 am
Dear Firozali,
I think the humanity is mostly living by plundering the Earth reserves at the rate that can’t be sustained going forward in future.
The “employment” is essentially produced by the concentration of economic activity in the areas where:
1. Earth resources are transfered into goods
2. There are service jobs around those primary jobs that produce goods
3. There is a government that taxes those who produce goods or service them and spend those money on anyone who is loyal and ready to support this government
Every person in the world who lives well belongs to either 1, 2, or 3. Anyone who was not lucky enough to be born where is a lot of 1, 2 or 3 is struggling. The world is cruel. And I don’t see how that could be fixed.
December 2, 2007 at 6:09 am
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