You probably know from the quite popular book “Ahead of the Curve” that employment numbers are in general a lagging indicator. Please note that the book’s charts are actually based on revised numbers, so the initial report is double useless – first because it is lagging, second because it will be revised in the unknown direction.
On top of that my favorite blog “Sudden debt” gave one more reason that in this economic cycle the employment numbers are more lagging than before. Please read here to get more details.
So, when the November nonfarm payroll numbers will be released next Friday, December the 7th you should:
- Understand that the numbers released at December 7 will give you the right numbers only for October, November numbers will be revised later
- Understand that October employment numbers released next week will give you the state of the economy back in September and say almost nothing about October
- Understand that September is so far away already that it hardly matters
- Ignore those numbers, toss them out the window
I understand that all news channels will try to tell you how important the NFP numbers are. They are wrong