In the last 5 business days (Aug 30-Sept 5) the outstanding commercial paper fell another $54 billion for a total decline of $298 billion since August 8th. This is 13% decline in just four weeks.

The total paper expiration is (was) $711 billion for 10 business days from Aug 27 to Sept 7. I will average it out into ~$355 billion expiration for that Wednesday to Wednesday period. The $54 bln decline means that about 15% of all expired paper failed to be rolled over. In some cases the issuer just didn’t want to make any roll-over as it probably already performed cost-cutting and doesn’t need money anymore.

What does it mean? I think the economy is already in the recession

Update. It was said at Minyanville that during the last recession outstanding commercial paper fell 22% from November of 2000 to December 2003.

Now we have 13% decline in 4 weeks. You can’t compare this recession with 2001. This time it’s much, much worse