Among all the economic stats coming in the next couple of weeks only very few are important, and they all come within the next few days.
My general rule is:
When the economy and stock market are close to the top watch the weakest points, because that’s where the economy will crack. On the bottom, try to find the strongest points, because they will drive the economy back up
Right now pretty much everything is not important. Employment stats and inflation are noise, I’m not interested. Real estate is already dead, I’m not interested to see those starts and completions. All those consumer sentiments, factory orders, “leading” indicators – not important.
The weakest points that could be observed in the immediate future are consumer spending and commercial paper market, that’s it. The relevant incoming data are:
- Aug 31st Personal consumption expenditures
- Sep 4th Auto sales
- Sep 6th Commercial paper stats
That’s all I want to know for now, and, frankly, I expect no good