You probably know that I think about economy as an inflationary/deflationary wave. The current moment could (with some probability) become a turning point from inflation into deflation. The chart that hints me about this development is the ratio between CCI commodities index and total return of treasury bonds:
It is not totally clear yet (at least to me – good chartists say more) but the chart seems like a potential topping pattern. There is a small head and shoulders pattern in June-July period. The whole fragment from February could also be regarded as a developing head and shoulders. And finally two trading weeks below 200 DMA could not be ignored.
When 50 DMA will cross down through 200 DMA the Feds will cut rates. I think this chart is more reliable indication of inflation than the CPI or PCE deflators reports. This chart is the voice of the whole market, because both $CCI and $DJCBTI are traded with trillions of dollars. We will know for sure what Feds will do in September