Just saw a commercial ad on TV from Capital One, they advertise “Home loans with a fixed rate below prime”.

Holy cow! The prime rate is 8.25%. So all they can say about their loans is that the rate is below 8.25%.

It will take couple of weeks before the new mortgage conditions will bubble up to the related statistics, like home sales, default rates and consumer spending.

I think we are more or less in the recession right now, but we will be firmly in the recession by the end of September, so I expect negative Q4 GDP growth