I like pictures worth thousand words. This is money market price:
We are at the levels we’ve being after September 11 2001. This is not just recessionary. Last time this happened it was 6 months after the recession started.
So I think we are already firmly in the recession by now (I’m writing this at August 20). The official statistics will need couple of months to catch up with reality, but it will mark this recession start at August 2007.
Or even before that, who knows?
Update. It was the biggest decline in Treasury Bill yield since World War II (there is no charts of that period). It’s 65 year record that we saw today