I think it’s the best to turn back to history. Here is the S&P/Case-Shiller housing index chart, the most accurate tool we have. Last time the housing prices decline (not below zero but below inflation, which I will conveniently put at the 1.71% line) started around June 1990 and ended in December 1996, which is 6.5 years.

Let assume that history will repeat itself, for the chart sake. This time prices started to fall around October 2006. If we add 6.5 years the bottom should be in the Spring of 2013. Put all those bottom callers to rest for now.

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