Today NAHB – index of builders confidence fell to 28. Let compare data from the last consumer-driven recession and today:

  1. The index fell from 44 in February of 1990 to 32 in July 1990 (the official recession start)
  2. During the recession, the index fell from 32 in July 1990 to as low as 20 in January of 1991. Then it quickly rebounded to 36 by March, when recession ended
  3. This time the index fell from 39 in February this year to 28 today. This is already below the level of the last recession start
  4. As the index level of 32 is sufficient to signal a recession, we already had 4 months below that level:
    1. 30 in September 2006
    2. 31 in October 2006
    3. 30 in May 2007
    4. 28 in June 2007

I don’t know how we are not in recession yet. Or maybe we are?

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