Just using the opinion of UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff to illustrate the current state of economic analysis. From what he said about the probability of recession you can conclude that, putting aside all the other nonsense he said, that “something is very different this time“.

I recall very well how often economists used the phrase “it’s different this time” back in 2000. Pity google can’t selectively pick up pages and articles from that time. But if we try it with present, we will get:

  • economy is “different this time” – 107,000
  • recession is “different this time” – 32,300
  • dollar is “different this time” – 84,400
  • internet stocks are “different this time” – 25,200
  • nasdaq is “different this time” – 21,300
  • soft landing is “different this time” – 20,100
  • inverted yield curve is “different this time” – 13,900
  • stupid idiot economists predicting soft landing are “different this time” – 221