In my recent post titled “first day of recession” I was exaggerating. Of course recession does not happens, as usual, until three months from the point when job market makes a serious blip.
So, in the worst case, we have three months – i.e. until March. This is why tomorrow report is so important, and the market sold out to not keep profits overnight before the report.
My guesstimate is that tomorrow we will hear some thunder, but not experience a landslide yet.
Disclaimer: I’m more short then long today
Update after job report: it’s rather good, so there is no immediate danger to the economy and we probably won’t have a recession until April. What’s bad, is that there are 44,000 less well-paid manufacturing and construction jobs but 172,000 more not-so-well-paid jobs in services. Does not help to pay off mortgages.