The data released today are horrible as never before.
First, the association of realtors is posting a huge 4.1% seasonally adjusted decline in existing home sales for July. Never, never since 9/11 we had such a huge decline in just a month. And the North-east posted its first y/y decline of -2.1% in, as far as I can tell, 15 years.
The inventory of unsold homes climbed to 7.3 months, which is the record since the spring 1993. If something, whatever it is, is at 13-years record you must pay very close attention.
Second, the seasonally adjusted Mortgage Application index for new purchases fell by 1% in just 1 week and by 7% in 6 weeks.
How to short real estate, that’s the question 🙂