Did you hear it right, just today, when core inflation jumped to horrible 0.3%, I claim that inflation prospectives are getting better? That is correct.
The inflation is fueled not by the labor cost, which is constantly outsourced from one country to another, but by two major bubbles: commodity bubble and real estate bubble.
1. Commodity bubble. Let see the gold charts here:
The gold is heading down to sub-$500 levels, where it belongs. The oil bubble is still here, but it's waiting for the reduction in consumption to be worked out. It could take another month or two, but it's real. There is a sizable contraction in all construction activities all around the globe. A lot of gas will be saved on that.
2. Housing bubble. The actual component of inflation is not the cost of housing, but the cost of rent as a last resort for those who can't afford to own. Those who prefer to own will pay increased mortgages as the fed rate is increasing. This is not inflationary, this is deflationary as it curbs the consumption. Read this:
A glut of new property supply, especially condominiums, is coming on line. A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market — just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.
There is a huge amount of vacant real estate pressing the rental prices down. Those condos will not stay empty, they will be rented out for any price. Just give it another month and you will see amazing savings in rental prices in all hot markets, from San Diego to D.C.
I give all the credits to Uncle Ben, Bank of Japan and European central bank. Inflation is toast.