I'm getting a little annoyed with loads of gold bulls articles, suggesting gold is going to the moon.

Let's put the facts straight, and facts for me mean data. The 70's inflation shock was finally contained 20 years ago, in 1986. So it's a good starting point for examining the trends of gold price. That's gold price in '86:

Let take $340 as a starting point of today gold bull market. If we assume that feds lied us all the way back and the average inflation for those 20 years was 4%, then current gold price should be $340 * 1.04^20 = $745

If we assume feds did not lie us that much and real inflation was 3%, then today price should be $340 * 1.03^20 = $615.

So the current price of gold is doing exactly that, it's bouncing between those $615 and $745. I see absolutely no fundamentals for gold to go anywhere outside of this range, not to the moon, not to the ground. And yes, I don't see anything magic in gold. It's just another metal.

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