February 2006

Two very simple statistical data: new home starts at 2.28 million annual rate in January, new home sales at 1.23 million rate. The supply exceeds the demand by 85%, and this supply is coming as a wave just few months from now.

<insert your own conclusion here>

I see some direct political implications of coming real estate crash. Thanks Karl Rove strategy, Bush' electoral base consists of 10% of richest voters and 40% of the most stupid people as well. His hypocrisy is too insulting for those smart people who are not rich enough. The home market crash will hit stupid people in the first place, as those are relying too much on the market bubble prices for their day-to-day spending, which can substantially erode the GOP political base.


After Libby did so few weeks ago, now his boss is doing the same. It seems WH, which already regarded Cheney as liability, finally made a decision to get rid of him. It may take few months, but I bet Cheney won’t be vice-president by the end of summer. Vacation time is the best to cut dead meat.

Another interesting thing. I think the hunting incident that happened a little while ago confirms that Cheney, in fact, had presidential ambitions. At that very moment he learned that Bush decided to surrender the smoking evidence of his participation in Plamegate, which made not only his ambitions, but his career over. So he went heavy drinking and shooting with lobbyists. Maybe decided to make some more money before leaving?

Dispite all the concerns about security implications it seems that Bush is eager to press the deal very hard. It seems strange, as usually this administration lives in peace with congress majority, do not vetoe anything and is in general very passive in actions, especially in reacting to terror attacs and hurricanes. What happened?

Let examine Bush ties with UAE. It seems that Bush is participating in some special financial circles that are linked, particularly, to UAE. And UAE is linked to oil, if you know, and oil is linked to money. Should we dust off the Skull and Bones society again? From the arcticle, interview with Yale President:

Tang: The most mysterious society is Skull and Bones?

Levin: Yes, I know. The great majority of organizations at Yale are public and open to anyone to join. Unlike most student societies, Skull and Bones is secret, selective of its members.

Tang: Skull and Bones was founded in 1832. Every year only 15 best students are allowed to join. All Bonesmen, as they’re called, are forbidden to reveal what goes on in their inner sanctum, the windowless building on the Yale campus that is called The Tomb. Notable Bonesmen include former President Taft and both current and former Presidents Bush. Apart from presidents, Bones has included cabinet officers, spies, Supreme Court justices, statesmen and captains of industry.

Levin: I don’t know very much about that. You probably know more than I do. (Laugh)

Tang: Are you a member of that?

Levin: No, I am not.

Tang: what is the implication of Skull and Bones to American institutions of higher learning and American society?

Levin: Very little.

Tang: But there is a conspiracy theory about Skull and Bones. According to the theory, members of Skull and Bones are controlling America and even the world.

Levin: I think it is kind of media distortion. In fact, they are just students getting together to talk about each other’s life and aspirations. It is not a secret power of American society.

Tang: So It is just for fun? We don’t need to take that seriously?

Levin: I agree.

Yeah, a lot of fun. Especially in Iraq.

Yesterday has probably to marked as the first day of the full fledged civil war in Iraq. I’m still looking for conspiracy theory explaining the bombing, but it is totally clear that situation is out of control, occupational forces will have to retreat back to safe bases and watch Iraq breaking into three separate states engaged in war among each other.

I would agree with this blog that the majority of population will not support and participate in civil war. The sectarian tensions are not the most important things in average Iraqi mindset. But those who will chose to participate could not be stopped by any force.

I’m predicting the large investments into national security in Turkey and Iran.

Good article about Bernanke and economic policies here, just to keep a reference

WASHINGTON, Feb. 16 (UPI) — The U.S. government is questioning why an Australian television network aired old images of Iraqi prisoner abuse after soldiers have already been tried.

Should we stop making movies about WWII because the war is over? Should we forget holocaust too?

This picture is 60 years old.

Very nice this one:

I would guess it didn’t exactly represent a profile in courage for the vice president to wander over there to the F-word network for a sit down with Brit Hume. I mean, that’s a little like Bonnie interviewing Clyde, ain’t it?

Nice summary here.

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