Iraq


There is no senses more powerful than hate and fear, even love is behind them. We talked often how Bush' administration is exploiting fear to unite the nation in support of "the war on terror", while in fact fighting the "war for foreign oil". 

So now hate is in play. The absolute majority of this country hate Niggers, Gays and Latinos. The constitutional amendment that will ban a Nigger from marrying a white protestant girl will certainly play on this hate and unite many voters behind the great Republican party.

Divide and conquer. It's all the same in the last 2000 years.

Do me a favor, make an experiment. Grab your dog (or borrow a dog somewhere) and do this thing

to your neighbor. Then let the police to arrest you, bla, bla, bla, and tell me what punishment you will get for this. A year of jail? Two years?

Let me surprize you that the guy on the picture who did this got 90 days of labor and no jail. I need a dog.

I'm glad to see that now even the Republican stronghold, the GOP, is joining the anti-Bush election campaign. Executive Director Mark Stephens is saying that electing Democrats in the Congress will accomplish the following tasks:

  1. Improve the fiscal responsibility of the Government
  2. Investigate the unwarranted and uncontrolled wiretapping of phone calls of American citizens
  3. Investigate the origins and conduct of Iraq war
  4. Bring those responsible to account

Assuming that 69% of population, sick and tired from president Bush, wants to do exactly that, I should say the GOP leadership is outlining the task to accomplish extremely well.

GOP, my heart is with you! 

Today Al-Qaeda number two al-Zawahiri was calling insurgents to overthrow the government of Pakistan.

After this and many other proves, does anyone still believe that Saddam and Al-Qaeda were not natural enemies and the Bush' claim of the opposite was not a lie, blatant lie?

This post could surprise many of my anti-Bush friends, but I claim that Bush will end the war in Iraq sooner than later.

First thing to understand is that Bush has almost no strategic politics on his own, he's left to decide only tactical questions and methods to do things. He's a puppet in fat cats hands and he's not smart for his own policies anyway. Essentially, in the first days in his office, he was visited by his fellow "Skull and Bones" friends executives of Exxon, BP and Shell and told:

Listen Bush. We need a war with Iraq and we stand for our business. You screw yourself and you do it, but keep your own fingers dirty. You can claim that Saddam has some ties with terrorists or WMD, you may let terrorists to blow up few buildings in Manhattan, but keep your ass away from us when you do that. Dismissed.

Nobody else made a sound against it, because most of other big guys are pretty neutral to war. Who cares?

Not anymore. The recent developments in interest rates and inflation point to lose-lose situation in the capital markets. Let read the good illustration of the problem:

First, suppose that Citibank gets money from its depositors at a floating rate, and lends to mortgage borrowers at a fixed 6%. Now GM issues bonds yielding 7%, and enters a swap with Citibank, in which Citibank pays GM 5% fixed in return for floating. (Specifically, both parties agree on some notional principal, say $100 million, and each makes payments to the other, determined by multiplying a fixed or floating interest rate by that principal amount. The market for this sort of transaction is huge).

Well, now GM is paying an actual interest rate of floating + 2% (pay 7% to bondholders, get 5% from Citibank, pay Citibank floating). Meanwhile, as compensation for the credit risk it has accepted all around, Citibank earns a fixed 1% margin regardless of interest rate movements (pay depositors floating, get 6% from mortgages, pay 5% to GM, get floating from GM). Neat. And since Citibank is federally insured at the depositor level, and too big to fail at the institutional level, Uncle Sam is now a counterparty that effectively shares the risk in the case that GM or homeowners default. Similar transactions serve to swap risky corporate and mortgage borrowing into safe government agency paper issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Now make no mistake, there is little question that bank deposits and agency debt are safely backed by the U.S. government and that this is a good commitment. However, the holders of stock in banks or mortgage companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may not be so secure. It's just excruciatingly difficult to perfectly match risky assets and liabilities at extremely high levels of leverage. Ask Long Term Capital. Indeed, were it not for accounting rules that allow Fannie Mae to keep balance sheet losses out of earnings, it would be clearer to investors that last summer's 5-month duration mismatch cost Fannie nearly a year of earnings. Similar derivatives-related issues are at the core of Freddie Mac's recent difficulties.

In short, further increase of interest rates can trigger a catastrophic reaction on financial markets, but it will be no better if the inflation starts. So, to avoid too much of economics and jump straight to conclusion, there is no other way to solve the situation than to dramatically cut federal expenses, and the simplest way to do that is to stop the war. Now we have some other (not from Skull and Bones) executives to visit Bush and say: "Mister Bush, we urge you to cut federal budget costs by huge margin. We expect you to finish deploying your solution by the time we schedule to meeting to discuss Congress campaign contributions."

After this strange things start to happen. The US withdrawal from Iraq is discussed. President is talking about alternative fuels (helps Saudi to pump more). L.A. Times Editorial calls for Cheney's ouster. Expect more like that and understand that this is very big money who are speaking. And Bush has to listen.

My answer to this post, claiming that the latest Fitzgerald filing is invalidating the case against Bush, because uranium claim was not so important.

I'm sorry ma'm, but you have no clue. Nobody is suing anyone for leaking classified or rather quickly de-classified information. The event that triggered the investigation was the blew-up of the fake front company that was pretending to be an energy materials trader and operated on Pakistan and Iran black market, specifically focused on Iran nuclear efforts. The cover was blown up and the company ceased to exist.

The investigation was set to determine the source of the leak to cut hairy tails quickly. The Bush, Cheney and Co denial of involvement had suggested that there is a real problem with classified information. Someone somewhere just knows too much. That damages the whole net of operations, because you don't know what the other side knows anymore.

If the secret service knew from the day one that the source of the operation blew-up is just this stupid idiot Bush, they would cut the damage more efficiently than otherwise. But Bush went onto denial and misled them.

The crime is not the leak. Big deal, we know what kind of idiots are located in WH, so we can expect them to do stupid things. The crime is obstruction of investigation. This whole crowd: Bush, Cheney, Card, Rice, Hadley must be prosecuted for perjury and obstruction of justice, as soon as possible. Let them leak besides the bars.

Libby disclosure left few words about how the Iraqi nuclear thread was unrolled:

Mr. Libby also inaccurately described the CIA report on Mr. Wilson's trip, saying the former ambassador reported information about an Iraqi delegation visiting Niger in 1999 that was "understood to be a reference to a desire to obtain uranium." In fact, Mr. Wilson said he was told that a Niger official was contacted at a meeting outside the country by a businessman who said an Iraqi economic delegation wanted to meet with him. The Niger official guessed the Iraqis might want to talk about uranium, since Iraq had purchased uranium from Niger in the mid-1980s. But when they met, no talk of uranium took place.

So some little-thinking Iraqis requested a meeting with a Niger official and did not disclose in advance that they are not going to speak about uranium. As a result, they got their country destroyed and 100,000 people killed. Ups, sorry about that folks :-). Next time just watch your mouth.

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