First of all, this is another victory for the “Dow Theory”. Formulated 105 years ago it says the bear market is triggered when Dow Jones and Transports are making simultaneous lower low on a daily closing metric. According to great Dow the bear market was triggered back in November. This theory never failed before, never. And today it scored one more victory when, two months later, all major indexes completed the bear market pattern on much simpler and universally accepted TA charting method.
Usually the Dow Theory followers are getting out of stocks few weeks later after the day the Dow Bear starts, when stocks rebound a bit. This time it was back in mid-December. You can imagine how happy they are now 
This bear is still young and not very dangerous. But give it 2-3 years and it will be a mighty beast, and the blood will be on the streets.
Dear bear, please be kind to us, grow fast and leave young, get back to your forest in 2010!
January 8, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Financials impressively whacked today. Hard to imagine anyone feeling much enthusiasm for going long at this point.
January 8, 2008 at 7:50 pm
You Win….
January 9, 2008 at 2:55 pm
[...] according to the venerable Dow Theory, it’s officially a bear market. Yeah, my puts are exploding in value, but I’d rather it was calls that were going up. But [...]
January 9, 2008 at 9:47 pm
by the way average Br Mkt top to bottom is about 14 months. Only 4 have exceeded 21 months since 1915. None have exceed 33 months if my memory is good. Always a first though.
January 9, 2008 at 10:32 pm
>>>None have exceed 33 months if my memory is good. Always a first though.
The Great Depression was actually 34 months measured from top to bottom on the DJIA — Sep 1929 through Jun 1932.
Nikkei 1990-92 and NASDAQ 2000-02 were both about 30 months.
January 10, 2008 at 12:56 pm
For S&P500 bear mkt started in Sept 2000 and ended in October 2002.
For Nasdaq it was from April 2000 to October 2002.
But some late cycle indices made last lows later. For example – consumer staples and discretionaroes, idustrials, materials and some others – all made the last lows in March ’03. Those who peaked later bottomed later.
So with proper sector rotation bull and bear market are overlapping by at least half a year. At those turning points you must be both long and short.
January 10, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Last year many sectors already peaked in July, 3 months before the last market top. Heck, all the real estate was already 50% down by August!
January 10, 2008 at 9:31 pm
I would like to remind the readers here of something. The generic drugs stocks, medical lab companies, diagnostic substance companies and drug whosale companies started 2 year moves of 200-500% in 2000. Hate to use this phrase, but there is most likely a bull mkt somewhere.
January 12, 2008 at 11:47 am
[...] stock market is wobbling now, the opening moments of a bear market. It will be growling loudly [...]
March 6, 2008 at 10:09 am
i like bears whery mach i live in TBILISI and i have one bear pk pk pk
March 14, 2008 at 7:20 am
Kewl.
March 16, 2008 at 9:15 pm
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