Comments on: I can’t go to vacations or what? http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/ Being in the flock of those who hate to be in the herd Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:36:30 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: idoc http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18394 idoc Wed, 11 Jul 2007 04:13:52 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18394 wordpress.com, hey i was in Cancun the wk BSC's 2 hedge funds hit the fan. just got my laptop to connect to the wireless hotel network that Monday morning as the news hit the wires. due to great sites like this and over at CR, i knew to double down on my shorts immediately and i haven't looked back since. it MADE and PAID my vacation! i think yrs from now i will look back and say that was a seminal event. wordpress.com,
hey i was in Cancun the wk BSC’s 2 hedge funds hit the fan. just got my laptop to connect to the wireless hotel network that Monday morning as the news hit the wires. due to great sites like this and over at CR, i knew to double down on my shorts immediately and i haven’t looked back since. it MADE and PAID my vacation! i think yrs from now i will look back and say that was a seminal event.

]]> By: Top Posts « WordPress.com http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18381 Top Posts « WordPress.com Tue, 10 Jul 2007 23:58:50 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18381 [...] I can’t go to vacations or what? I’m checking charts after few days away at nature, away from computers - and it’s total, total disaster! I […] [...] [...] I can’t go to vacations or what? I’m checking charts after few days away at nature, away from computers – and it’s total, total disaster! I […] [...]

]]> By: theroxylandr http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18374 theroxylandr Tue, 10 Jul 2007 20:36:16 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18374 Some answers: 1. I do not know any access to intraday ABX quotes, but I think once per day is enough for our purposes 2. Do not search for ABX-HE-AA, sometimes they just call it ABX or ABX.HE. Usually bloomberg.com is good in tracking those indices, they publish every time something major happens 3. The LCDX index is updated at noon at markit.com, it's good enough if you need something fresh 4. Today junk spreads are widening, while T-bonds are up, i.e. flight to quality. LBO mania has few weeks to go left. Some answers:

1. I do not know any access to intraday ABX quotes, but I think once per day is enough for our purposes

2. Do not search for ABX-HE-AA, sometimes they just call it ABX or ABX.HE. Usually bloomberg.com is good in tracking those indices, they publish every time something major happens

3. The LCDX index is updated at noon at markit.com, it’s good enough if you need something fresh

4. Today junk spreads are widening, while T-bonds are up, i.e. flight to quality. LBO mania has few weeks to go left.

]]> By: Shared Scitless http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18367 Shared Scitless Tue, 10 Jul 2007 19:04:17 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18367 BTW, when I read the AP article, (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070703/late_loans.html?.v=4) I was absolutely amazed at the cluelessness of the wizards over people paying their cards instead of their HE loans. Stop and think: The HE money? It's gone, Baby! We ripped through that two years ago! Now the fabled American consumer is paying his credit cards so that he can charge next month's groceries on them! If people are scratching their heads over this, they'd better not scratch too deep. BTW, when I read the AP article, (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070703/late_loans.html?.v=4) I was absolutely amazed at the cluelessness of the wizards over people paying their cards instead of their HE loans. Stop and think: The HE money? It’s gone, Baby! We ripped through that two years ago! Now the fabled American consumer is paying his credit cards so that he can charge next month’s groceries on them! If people are scratching their heads over this, they’d better not scratch too deep.

]]> By: Shared Scitless http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18362 Shared Scitless Tue, 10 Jul 2007 18:48:43 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18362 On 7/3, AP posted the following news item, which seems to correlate nicely with the cliff on the chart: Tuesday July 3, 8:32 am ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Late Payments Rise for Home Equity Loans, Fall for Credit Cards, Painting Mixed Picture On 7/3, AP posted the following news item, which seems to correlate nicely with the cliff on the chart:

Tuesday July 3, 8:32 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Late Payments Rise for Home Equity Loans, Fall for Credit Cards, Painting Mixed Picture

]]> By: Darth Toll http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18358 Darth Toll Tue, 10 Jul 2007 18:18:45 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18358 jmf, That could be the reason for the weakness today, although there are so many reasons to panic as theroxylandr pointed out, it's hard to know what the trigger is. So S&P cuts the rating on some of this junk AFTER witnessing what happened with the BSC non-auction. As someone said on a blog today, the function of the ratings agencies seems to be to walk the battlefield after the battle is over and shoot the wounded. My question is still the same though: The BSC non-auction has tons of outstanding redemptions that weren't filled on the mother fund. How long will it be before some of the larger investors (pensions, etc.) start demanding redemption in a more forceful and lounder manner? This mark-to-model junk can't be hidden forever, and a screaming giant pension is just the thing to bring the whole derivatives market to its knees. jmf,

That could be the reason for the weakness today, although there are so many reasons to panic as theroxylandr pointed out, it’s hard to know what the trigger is.

So S&P cuts the rating on some of this junk AFTER witnessing what happened with the BSC non-auction. As someone said on a blog today, the function of the ratings agencies seems to be to walk the battlefield after the battle is over and shoot the wounded. My question is still the same though: The BSC non-auction has tons of outstanding redemptions that weren’t filled on the mother fund. How long will it be before some of the larger investors (pensions, etc.) start demanding redemption in a more forceful and lounder manner? This mark-to-model junk can’t be hidden forever, and a screaming giant pension is just the thing to bring the whole derivatives market to its knees.

]]> By: jmf http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18356 jmf Tue, 10 Jul 2007 16:11:46 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18356 Moin from Germany, maybe there was a leak..... From today <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMDqIntYqNBA&refer=home" rel="nofollow">S&P May Cut $12 Billion of Subprime Mortgage Bonds </a> Standard & Poor's may cut credit ratings on $12 billion of bonds backed by subprime mortgages, citing expectations that losses will continue. The bonds are from 612 classes of residential mortgage- backed securities, S&P said today in an e-mailed statement. Ratings on collateralized debt obligations that contain the mortgage bonds are also under review, S&P said. The amount of $ 12 billion represents only a low single digit percentage of the total When they will continue with their "downgrading" pace we will hear news like this almost on a weekly basis for quarters to come... :-) Moin from Germany,

maybe there was a leak…..

From today

S&P May Cut $12 Billion of Subprime Mortgage Bonds

Standard & Poor’s may cut credit ratings on $12 billion of bonds backed by subprime mortgages, citing expectations that losses will continue.

The bonds are from 612 classes of residential mortgage- backed securities, S&P said today in an e-mailed statement. Ratings on collateralized debt obligations that contain the mortgage bonds are also under review, S&P said.

The amount of $ 12 billion represents only a low single digit percentage of the total

When they will continue with their “downgrading” pace we will hear news like this almost on a weekly basis for quarters to come… :-)

]]> By: idoc http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18355 idoc Tue, 10 Jul 2007 15:27:46 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18355 oxy, is there a realtime intraday source for the abx index? oxy,

is there a realtime intraday source for the abx index?

]]> By: John M http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18352 John M Tue, 10 Jul 2007 14:34:03 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/07/09/i-cant-go-to-vacations-or-what/#comment-18352 My blogging partner twist caught that chart, and I sent a flare to Aaron. I searched |ABX-HE-AA| on google news but nothing there yet. Found your July 2 post on a general google. What the &$*#@ is going on out there? The Google News US Biz page is nothing but mega-deals, with pretty strong Dow surge as late as yesterday on all the M&A. My blogging partner twist caught that chart, and I sent a flare to Aaron. I searched |ABX-HE-AA| on google news but nothing there yet. Found your July 2 post on a general google. What the &$*#@ is going on out there? The Google News US Biz page is nothing but mega-deals, with pretty strong Dow surge as late as yesterday on all the M&A.

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