Comments on: Panic at the commercial Real Estate market http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/ Being in the flock of those who hate to be in the herd Sun, 06 Dec 2009 06:36:30 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: zeroipwhepe http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-29930 zeroipwhepe Wed, 20 May 2009 18:25:17 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-29930 Nice internet site - Hope to definitely visit soon... Nice internet site – Hope to definitely visit soon…

]]> By: lendingnewsonline.com http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-24024 lendingnewsonline.com Wed, 17 Oct 2007 06:59:15 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-24024 [...] Stock crash to happen next week?  article [...] [...] Stock crash to happen next week?  article [...]

]]> By: patio enclosure http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-21565 patio enclosure Thu, 06 Sep 2007 14:20:32 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-21565 <strong>patio enclosure</strong> patio enclosure patio enclosure

patio enclosure

]]> By: JPOliva.org » Blog Archive » Sustainable housing, does it exist in the US? http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-20382 JPOliva.org » Blog Archive » Sustainable housing, does it exist in the US? Wed, 15 Aug 2007 17:01:12 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-20382 [...] This is another situation where the industry folks (bankers, lenders, brokers etc.,) are way ahead of the knowledge (panic) curve, so beware! For the most part, Real Estate Agents (though this is changing) and certainly Sellers and some Buyers are still in the dark, or in denial, about the magnitude of this correction and where it will eventually take the market. The media and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are spinning like crazy (its a great opportunity to buy! Hint - it isn’t). Even Wall Street has just seemingly awoken to the danger that Mortgage Backed Security and Collateralized Debt Obligation defaults pose to investors (yes, the market is tanking, but this inevitable correction is long overdue). [...] [...] This is another situation where the industry folks (bankers, lenders, brokers etc.,) are way ahead of the knowledge (panic) curve, so beware! For the most part, Real Estate Agents (though this is changing) and certainly Sellers and some Buyers are still in the dark, or in denial, about the magnitude of this correction and where it will eventually take the market. The media and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are spinning like crazy (its a great opportunity to buy! Hint – it isn’t). Even Wall Street has just seemingly awoken to the danger that Mortgage Backed Security and Collateralized Debt Obligation defaults pose to investors (yes, the market is tanking, but this inevitable correction is long overdue). [...]

]]> By: Mary Beth Hurtado & Elliott Lewis http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-17020 Mary Beth Hurtado & Elliott Lewis Sat, 23 Jun 2007 06:17:23 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-17020 Nice comments, can't say I agree with all of them. Need to do more research and then comment Nice comments, can’t say I agree with all of them. Need to do more research and then comment

]]> By: Credit crunch: what to watch next week? « The Theroxylandr in Flame http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-13063 Credit crunch: what to watch next week? « The Theroxylandr in Flame Sat, 19 May 2007 17:55:03 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-13063 [...] It’s very clear that capital is moving from small stocks into big ones. REITs are moving down. Remember this post? [...] [...] It’s very clear that capital is moving from small stocks into big ones. REITs are moving down. Remember this post? [...]

]]> By: theroxylandr http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10922 theroxylandr Thu, 26 Apr 2007 00:29:57 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10922 Thanks german! So it's bear. I will post more findings in few minutes Thanks german! So it’s bear. I will post more findings in few minutes

]]> By: german http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10909 german Wed, 25 Apr 2007 18:10:22 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10909 I just contacted markit. 213.177.33.28 is an internal test server, so the values there are wrong! I don't know where or how i fetched that link. Just forget about it. :-) I just contacted markit. 213.177.33.28 is an internal test server, so the values there are wrong! I don’t know where or how i fetched that link. Just forget about it. :-)

]]> By: german http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10898 german Wed, 25 Apr 2007 15:55:23 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10898 I googled "CMBX" some weeks ago and bookmarked that link. The values were identical to yours until yesterday. Perhaps markit introduced different CMBX Indices for bulls and bears? ;-) I googled “CMBX” some weeks ago and bookmarked that link. The values were identical to yours until yesterday. Perhaps markit introduced different CMBX Indices for bulls and bears? ;-)

]]> By: theroxylandr http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10887 theroxylandr Wed, 25 Apr 2007 13:14:36 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10887 german, this is a total mistery for me. Your link http://213.177.33.28/information/affiliations/cmbx shows clearly different numbers than http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/cmbx.html Where did you get it? german, this is a total mistery for me. Your link

http://213.177.33.28/information/affiliations/cmbx

shows clearly different numbers than

http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/cmbx.html

Where did you get it?

]]> By: german http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10850 german Wed, 25 Apr 2007 04:46:54 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10850 I looked at http://213.177.33.28/information/affiliations/cmbx - CMBX-NA-A 2 is 24.44 there, now. I looked at http://213.177.33.28/information/affiliations/cmbx – CMBX-NA-A 2 is 24.44 there, now.

]]> By: theroxylandr http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10826 theroxylandr Tue, 24 Apr 2007 22:48:12 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10826 German - I'm not sure where you are looking. Markit shows CMBX-NA-A 2 to be 50 today. It's down from 59.5 top it was last Friday - but still well above typical interval of 35-40 after February crash from 15. The total loss in 2 months is 35 bps, comparing to 25 bps coupon. I can't say investors are happy here. German – I’m not sure where you are looking.

Markit shows CMBX-NA-A 2 to be 50 today. It’s down from 59.5 top it was last Friday – but still well above typical interval of 35-40 after February crash from 15.

The total loss in 2 months is 35 bps, comparing to 25 bps coupon. I can’t say investors are happy here.

]]> By: german http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10819 german Tue, 24 Apr 2007 19:25:29 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10819 Look again at the CMBX-NA-A 2 today. What happened? It eased from 60 to 24.5! Seems like someone has rescued the markets once again! Look again at the CMBX-NA-A 2 today. What happened? It eased from 60 to 24.5! Seems like someone has rescued the markets once again!

]]> By: gentlyused http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10592 gentlyused Sun, 22 Apr 2007 05:16:58 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10592 *over zealous/overzealous - correction *over zealous/overzealous – correction

]]> By: gentlyused http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10591 gentlyused Sun, 22 Apr 2007 05:15:55 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10591 Classic Kinleberger and a case of the pathologies of overzelous creditors. A housing-market bubble...Japan in the 80s. The question now remains: will the US stock market bubble feel the US housing market crash? YES. Classic Kinleberger and a case of the pathologies of overzelous creditors. A housing-market bubble…Japan in the 80s. The question now remains: will the US stock market bubble feel the US housing market crash?

YES.

]]> By: alexi http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10589 alexi Sun, 22 Apr 2007 04:23:43 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10589 This may help to explain what's going on: http://tinyurl.com/2v3uoz http://tinyurl.com/39fmo3 April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service, one of the two largest credit-rating firms, will require more protection for investors in securities backed by mortgages on apartment buildings, offices and other commercial properties because of ``a continued slide'' in lending standards. Surging delinquencies on subprime residential mortgages caused by looser lending practices are an ``elephant in the room'' that has called attention to standards on other loan types, Moody's said. As with home loans, commercial mortgages have been requiring less documentation and including the use of more interest-only loans and secondary financing, it said. ``This is a direct response to the slow but steady erosion in underwriting quality within the securitized commercial mortgage lending world,'' Jim Duca, a group managing director at Moody's in New York, said in the statement. This may help to explain what’s going on:

http://tinyurl.com/2v3uoz
http://tinyurl.com/39fmo3

April 11 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Investors Service, one of the two largest credit-rating firms, will require more protection for investors in securities backed by mortgages on apartment buildings, offices and other commercial properties because of “a continued slide” in lending standards.

Surging delinquencies on subprime residential mortgages caused by looser lending practices are an “elephant in the room” that has called attention to standards on other loan types, Moody’s said. As with home loans, commercial mortgages have been requiring less documentation and including the use of more interest-only loans and secondary financing, it said.

“This is a direct response to the slow but steady erosion in underwriting quality within the securitized commercial mortgage lending world,” Jim Duca, a group managing director at Moody’s in New York, said in the statement.

]]> By: Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame « Social Orb http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10544 Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame « Social Orb Sat, 21 Apr 2007 17:33:09 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10544 [...] Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame [...] [...] Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame Panic at the commercial Real Estate market « The Theroxylandr in Flame [...]

]]> By: Links - 21/04/07 « Krugergold Finance http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10518 Links - 21/04/07 « Krugergold Finance Sat, 21 Apr 2007 08:51:40 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10518 [...] Commercial Real Estat Indicator(theroxylandr) If this chart doesn’t get back tomorrow then I predict good market crash next week. This chart means run, run, run! [...] [...] Commercial Real Estat Indicator(theroxylandr) If this chart doesn’t get back tomorrow then I predict good market crash next week. This chart means run, run, run! [...]

]]> By: Commercial Real Estate Panic « Pebcac’s Playground http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10507 Commercial Real Estate Panic « Pebcac’s Playground Sat, 21 Apr 2007 06:48:47 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10507 [...] by pebcac on April 21st, 2007 Here’s an interesting look at the not-so-distant real estate market. Investors should pay [...] [...] by pebcac on April 21st, 2007 Here’s an interesting look at the not-so-distant real estate market. Investors should pay [...]

]]> By: allocator http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10499 allocator Sat, 21 Apr 2007 03:17:01 +0000 http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/panic-at-the-commercial-real-estate-market/#comment-10499 Well I don't know anything about REITs, but since the Feb 27 crash, I have positioned my portfolio for (1) a market correction with short ETFs, (2) rising energy prices with energy stocks and a leveraged energy ETF, and (3) stagflation with some gold stocks. This probably won't happen overnight. It will take a while for the sub-prime problem to manifest in outright foreclosures that pressure real-estate prices. Credit contraction will play out more slowly, and you can bet that the Fed and financial community will play that down. Going for the market right now is all that liquidity, recent positive earnings surprises from the blue chips, the Presidential cycle factor, and the relative cheapness of stocks to bonds on an earnings yield basis. Also resources and blue chips will buoy the market because of sector rotation and defensiveness respectively. The rally could last most of this year, but because of the sharper rise since Feb 27, the next pullback should fairly sharp as well - so volatility will be increasing. I think energy stocks are a very good bet here. The U.S. dollar is into its next downleg, and commodities, after having paused since last summer, are going to surge again, creating more inflation. Supply disruption will be a factor in energy (regional conflicts, hurricanes, warmer weather etc..) - and possibly foods such as grains - that should cause some price spikes. For now I'm early, and down overall about 5% since this re-positioning. I cover this in detail in my blog at http://stockadventures.wordpress.com/ Cheers Allocator Well I don’t know anything about REITs, but since the Feb 27 crash, I have positioned my portfolio for (1) a market correction with short ETFs, (2) rising energy prices with energy stocks and a leveraged energy ETF, and (3) stagflation with some gold stocks.

This probably won’t happen overnight. It will take a while for the sub-prime problem to manifest in outright foreclosures that pressure real-estate prices. Credit contraction will play out more slowly, and you can bet that the Fed and financial community will play that down. Going for the market right now is all that liquidity, recent positive earnings surprises from the blue chips, the Presidential cycle factor, and the relative cheapness of stocks to bonds on an earnings yield basis. Also resources and blue chips will buoy the market because of sector rotation and defensiveness respectively.

The rally could last most of this year, but because of the sharper rise since Feb 27, the next pullback should fairly sharp as well – so volatility will be increasing.

I think energy stocks are a very good bet here. The U.S. dollar is into its next downleg, and commodities, after having paused since last summer, are going to surge again, creating more inflation. Supply disruption will be a factor in energy (regional conflicts, hurricanes, warmer weather etc..) – and possibly foods such as grains – that should cause some price spikes.

For now I’m early, and down overall about 5% since this re-positioning. I cover this in detail in my blog at http://stockadventures.wordpress.com/

Cheers
Allocator

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